Quarterly Review & Outlook-3rd Quarter 2021

October 20, 2021

Cause and effect never take a day off.‐ George Saunders An earthquake hit the economy last year and the tectonic plates have yet to settle. Everyone seems to agree that permanent changes are afoot—we are not spending our time and money exactly the same way. The question is, what has changed for good, and by […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-2nd Quarter 2021

July 27, 2021

Our patience will achieve more than our force.‐ Edmund Burke It is a curious time for investors. The S&P 500 near all‐time highs feels at odds with the day‐today turmoil of life during the pandemic. High inflation combined with high unemployment echoes another era that featured nosebleed interest rates and single‐digit price‐earnings ratios, the opposite […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-1st Quarter 2021

April 30, 2021

Patience, that blend of moral courage and physical timidity.‐ Thomas Hardy, Tess of the d’Ubervilles Real‐time economic data show growth is accelerating and the debate has now turned to inflation. There is evidence of pricing pressure in various sectors, which to some extent is a feature of a strong recovery. The policy response prevented scarring […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-4th Quarter 2020

January 25, 2021

If you’ve got the money, honey, I’ve got the time.‐ Lefty Frizzell We would all prefer a world without COVID, but the pandemic and subsequent policy response appear to have sowed the seeds for a new, sustainable business cycle. The CARES Act earned a spot on the short list of successful legislation for which neither […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-3rd Quarter 2020

October 23, 2020

The secret to hitting a bullseye is not telling anyone where you are aiming.‐ Mammoth Cave tour guide, 8th grade field trip The key word for 2020 is “novel.” The novel coronavirus sparked a novel downturn and the policy response revealed a novel approach for fighting recessions. Novelty can be exciting, but in the context […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-2nd Quarter 2020

August 4, 2020

“We all got holes to fill, and them holes are all that’s real.Some fall on you like a storm, sometimes you dig your own.” -Townes Van Zandt, “To Live is to Fly” Historical parallels are of questionable use in the face of a global pandemic, subsequent economic shutdown, and unprecedented policy response. Not since World […]

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