Quarterly Review & Outlook-1st Quarter 2021

April 30, 2021

Patience, that blend of moral courage and physical timidity.‐ Thomas Hardy, Tess of the d’Ubervilles Real‐time economic data show growth is accelerating and the debate has now turned to inflation. There is evidence of pricing pressure in various sectors, which to some extent is a feature of a strong recovery. The policy response prevented scarring […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-4th Quarter 2020

January 25, 2021

If you’ve got the money, honey, I’ve got the time.‐ Lefty Frizzell We would all prefer a world without COVID, but the pandemic and subsequent policy response appear to have sowed the seeds for a new, sustainable business cycle. The CARES Act earned a spot on the short list of successful legislation for which neither […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-3rd Quarter 2020

October 23, 2020

The secret to hitting a bullseye is not telling anyone where you are aiming.‐ Mammoth Cave tour guide, 8th grade field trip The key word for 2020 is “novel.” The novel coronavirus sparked a novel downturn and the policy response revealed a novel approach for fighting recessions. Novelty can be exciting, but in the context […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-2nd Quarter 2020

August 4, 2020

“We all got holes to fill, and them holes are all that’s real.Some fall on you like a storm, sometimes you dig your own.” -Townes Van Zandt, “To Live is to Fly” Historical parallels are of questionable use in the face of a global pandemic, subsequent economic shutdown, and unprecedented policy response. Not since World […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-1st Quarter 2020

April 19, 2020

“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” ‐ Vladimir LeninThe world is in the middle of the messy real‐time process of assessing the economic fallout from the coronavirus. Significant short‐term weakness in the economy is here and now and, like a pileup on the interstate, it is hard not […]

Quarterly Review & Outlook-4th Quarter 2019

January 24, 2020

“Let all the children boogie.” -David Bowie, Starman Two years ago markets entered January fresh off a strong 2017. Economic growth was steady and well-balanced, unemployment was low, and corporate earnings were expected to grow nicely. The S&P 500 was hitting all-time highs, with gains concentrated among a handful of large technology companies. Volatility was […]

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